to deliver Copaxone. Smart people, who I trust, have told me that
such a combination would make sense for both companies. Recently
TEVA’s oral Copaxone was rejected by the FDA, causing the
injectable to be more important going forward. Copaxone would be
a very major home run for AIS. BUT it may or may not happen
and I don’t buy stocks on possibilities, and I don’t risk much on
probabilities. I buy on what I can reliably count on- and whatever
comes next is “icing on the cake”
I own a very large position in AIS, believing it the only risk is that
of normal market fluctuations- and the reward can be very outsized.
In other words AIS offers the best risk/ reward ratio I have seen
in several years.
What I believe I can count on is AIS earning $100 million a year
in growing and recurring revenue within the next few years. This
would equate to $1 a share in earnings and with a 20 X multiple
that is a $20 stock- and discounting that number for time and
risk: I believe the stock is worth, right now- between $6 and $8
a share.
I have posted this here before- But here again is how I see AIS
getting to $100 million in annual revenue in the next few years-
and what is NOT included in my numbers- could easily equal or exceed
what IS in my numbers.
AIS has licensed Anturol to Watson.
I projected $10 million in revenue to AIS from Anturol: Immediately
after the licensing agreement was announced- two analysts issued reports.
Ladenberg-Thalmann said peak AIS income from Anturol should be $15
million a year. Oppenheimer said Anturol sales could reach $250 million
and our royalty could run as high as 22%. With these numbers Anturol
income to AIS would be over $50 million a year). That requires a WOW.
How do we get to earn $100 million.
1. LibiGel should easily be a $1 billion “blockbuster” drug-
and our royalty is 5.5% or $55 million a year of recurring and
growing revenue to AIS. That is on domestic sales: AIS owns all
international rights to LibiGel which is currently uncommitted.
2. Anturol should be licensed this year for several million dollars
up-front and a royalty of probably mid teens- On Anturol sales
of $60 million AIS’ royalty income would be nearly $10 million
(and Anturol could easily produce $100 million in sales and generate
$15+ Million to AIS). OAB is a multi-billion $ market and Anturol
has one of the best side effect profiles of any existing drug.
3. Elestrin should earn AIS $3 -5+ million a year.
4. Tev-Tropin (first launched AIS/TEVA product) HGH is a $1.3
Billion market – TEVA should easily capture 10%+ of the market
or sales of $100+ million. AIS’ royalty plus device sales should
average 10%, or $10 million a year to AIS.
5. TEVA/AIS Epinephrine: the market is $250 million – TEVA should
capture 20% and AIS receives an 8% royalty or $4 million a year.
6. TEVA/AIS #3 product is undisclosed but thought to be Sumatriptan:
Similar opportunity for AIS as with Epinephrine – $4 million a year to
AIS.
7. Current revenue for AIS – mostly from Ferring sales in Europe
around $14 million a year
THE ABOVE TOTAL $101 MILLION IN ROYALTY INCOME
TO AIS: With 100 million shares outstanding this is (more
of less) income of $1 a share..
Click here to receive a free 4 video course by Dr. Barry Burns. I took this free course myself and decided to buy his 2 part trading course as well to freshen up on my technical trading skills. I highly recommend Dr. Burns! Scott
4 Responses to More info on Antares Pharma (AIS)
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NestraGel, what about NestraGel. What would AIS make from this product?
Wayne
Currently, AIS does not have a partnership marketing wise for Nestrgel.. They might not need one the time that could come to market, which would be 3 to 5 years. The Market for that type of easy, side effect free contraception would be in the 10′s of billions.. Much larger than any cancer type “cure”.. there would be simply be a huge demand for it.
Just curious…I see that in late July or early August, AIS took a sudden dramatic tumble from about $2.50 to $1.80, and then quickly bounced back. What was that all about?
I guess small stocks are relatively volatile. Looking at AIS 10-year history…In 2002, it was flying relatively high, touching on $5. Then it plunged to $.50 in 2003 before spiking to $3 and then falling again to the $1.50 range. When the markets crashed, it fell to as low as $.50 again going into 2009, and then began its steady climb to above $2, where it is now.
I assume most of Scott’s analytical comments are based upon current technology and business plans, and the historical floundering of 5 to 10 years ago isn’t highly applicable to today.
it isn’t relevant because the revenues have increased dramatically over that time plus they have new management with a real long term plan/goal which the end game as they have stated before is to be a top line company, not just a royalty based company. they have no debt and are very close to turning an actual profit now, long before their goals are even close to being met.. 32 million cash on hand and little cash burn = top management.